1. The Situation:
   Cuba’s fuel crisis has shifted from chronic shortage to a near-term aviation and power-grid failure problem as vessel-tracking analysts now peg remaining national fuel cover at “less than three weeks.” Havana has started implementing emergency demand-destruction measures (work-week cuts, sales restrictions) and is openly signaling willingness to talk to Washington—because it’s running out of time, not because it found a compromise. Mexico is trying to thread the needle by sending humanitarian shipments while reportedly backing away from oil cargoes under U.S. retaliation risk. Meanwhile, Cuba is already shuttering parts of the tourism machine (resorts) to preserve fuel for core state functions and critical infrastructure.
   Japan Times | Bloomberg | Semafor | Al Jazeera

2. The Mechanism:
   - Inventory clock becomes the master variable. Once a country drops into sub-3-week fuel cover, every actor (airlines, generators, ministries) stops optimizing for efficiency and starts optimizing for continuity—hoarding, priority allocations, and shutdowns become rational, accelerating visible collapse signals. Japan Times
   - Jet fuel is the “cashflow choke,” not just a transport input. Tourism is one of the few scalable hard-currency pipes left; when resorts close and flights thin out, Cuba loses the very FX it needs to bid for spot cargoes of refined products. This is a self-reinforcing spiral: less jet fuel → fewer tourists → less FX → less fuel. Bloomberg
   - Maritime insurance and secondary exposure are the enforcement lever. The U.S. doesn’t need a literal naval blockade to create one; it can raise the legal/financial cost of delivering to Cuba (tariff threats, sanctions risk, insurer reluctance), pushing suppliers into “don’t-touch” compliance and shrinking available tonnage. Al Jazeera
   - Supplier substitution fails because the product is specific. Cuba doesn’t just need “oil”; it needs deliverable refined fuels (diesel, gasoline, jet) compatible with its logistics and storage. Replacing Venezuelan flows with ad hoc cargoes is constrained by refinery configurations, payment terms, and shipping availability—so the market can’t clear fast even if a friendly state wants to help. Al Jazeera
   - Power-grid fragility turns fuel into a public-order issue. When generation fuel runs short, blackouts cascade into water pumping, refrigeration, and transit disruption—raising the security cost of rationing and forcing the state to divert scarce fuel to policing and “keep-lights-on” priorities. Semafor
   - One pass on politics: Washington’s incentive is to make third-country supply reputationally and financially toxic while offering humanitarian aid as narrative cover—maximizing pressure while minimizing images of overt punishment. Euronews

3. The State of Play:
   Reaction: Cuba is executing triage: shutting tourism nodes, rationing retail fuel, and throttling state activity to stretch remaining inventories while keeping the grid from total failure. Mexico is moving stuff (food/humanitarian shipments) but is signaling that fuel cargoes trigger U.S. punishment risk—so assistance is being redesigned around optics and legality rather than energy impact. The U.S. is pairing pressure mechanics with a small, targeted humanitarian package, which functions operationally as a pressure-release valve (reduce blowback) without solving the core constraint (fuel).
   Bloomberg | Semafor | Euronews | Al Jazeera

Strategy: Havana’s “open to talks” posture is a time-buy: it signals negotiability to slow external enforcement and tempt carve-outs, while internal measures ration the state’s runway to reach some negotiating event before inventories hit zero. Washington’s real play is third-party deterrence—make Mexico/others internalize the expected cost of a shipment so the supply graph collapses without a formal blockade. Mexico’s maneuver is legal compartmentalization: humanitarian shipments to preserve regional standing while quietly reducing energy exposure to U.S. retaliation.
Japan Times | Al Jazeera | Semafor | Bloomberg

4. Key Data:
   - < 3 weeks: estimated time Cuba can operate on current fuel inventory (oil-vessel tracking analysts cited). Japan Times
   - $6 million: additional U.S. humanitarian aid announced for Cuba. (Primary: U.S. State Dept press statement as reported across outlets.) The Hill | Euronews
   - 2 ships: Mexico dispatching humanitarian aid shipments to Cuba. Bloomberg
   - 11 million: Cuba’s population experiencing escalating rationing/blackouts. Al Jazeera
   - 1 major blackout (eastern Cuba) reported amid dwindling energy supplies. Semafor

5. What's Next:
   The next concrete trigger is the first visible “no-fuel” operational decision in the aviation stack—i.e., a formal schedule reduction or suspension by major carriers serving Havana/Varadero—expected inside the same ~3-week inventory window unless a deliverable refined-fuels cargo clears the sanctions/insurance channel. Watch for Cuba’s government to publish (or leak) the specific rationing decree package tied to its emergency plan and for Mexico to clarify whether any follow-on shipments include fuel versus only humanitarian goods; that decision point will determine whether this becomes a managed austerity episode or a rapid hard-stop in tourism and grid reliability.

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